BMI Industry View
BMI View: We maintain our view that the removal of sanctions on Iran in January 2016 will have a positive impact on foreign direct investment in the country, with GDP forecast to experience rapid growth over our medium-term forecast period from 2016-2020. In early 2016, we are already seeing South Korean and Italian firms seeking lasting partnerships with Iranian telecommunication companies and we believe this trend will continue into the future. The mobile segment will continue on its strong growth trajectory due to the increased accessibility of 3G and 4G services. The wireline segment will, however, continue to struggle due to growing preference for mobile solutions.
Latest Updates & Industry Developments
■ Removal of sanctions in January 2016 should encourage increased foreign direct investment into Iran, with BMI's Country Risk team predicting GDP to rise from 3.8% in 2016 to around 5% in 2020.
■ Since the launch of 3G and 4G data services, the Iranian mobile market has experienced strong growth yo- y and is expected to reach 152mn subscribers in 2020, up from 137.7mn in 2016.
■ Growth in the wireline segment will be subdued due to increase availability of mobile services; 32.5mn fixed lines are expected to be in service in 2020, up slightly from 30.7mn in 2016.