BMI Industry View

BMI View: Iran's telecoms market is an underperformer in the Middle East as a result of political and economic risks, exacerbated by currency depreciation. Access to the latest devices is limited. The UN Security Council's unanimous vote in July 2015 to lift the sanctions against Iran, following a deal on Iran's nuclear programme, however, warrants an optimistic outlook. BMI's Country Risk team has made a slight upward revision to our economic growth forecast for Iran, projecting real GDP growth to pick up from 0.6% in 2015, to 2.9% in 2016 and 3.6% in 2017. This is also likely to have a positive effect on the mobile market and potentially attract more foreign investment. Although mobile penetration in Iran is relatively high at 136.1%, BMI believes that there is further scope for growth. Data services, in particular, will grow at an average rate of 36.2% CAGR over the next five years. Iran's second biggest mobile operator MTN Irancell has launched 3G and 4G services and market leader MIC is planning to do so in the very near future.